2026 Stock Market Projections

It is not only the time of the year when we enjoy the holidays, but it is also the time for stock market strategists to provide a snapshot of their expectations for the S&P 500 in the year ahead. This year, I decided to compare these expectations with those of prior years, dating back to 2000.

Along with all the annual outlook reports published over the last few weeks, there’s been the usual plethora of strategist price targets for where the S&P 500 will close out 2026. Most strategists would advise taking their price targets with a grain of salt and using them as a guideline for what they expect in the year ahead. While the actual targets may not hold much value, collectively they provide a good guide of Wall Street’s views for the year ahead.

With this year’s vintage of price targets, strategists have a positive outlook for the year ahead (as they almost always do). Based on where the S&P 500 closed on Wednesday, all 20 of the strategist price targets I came across for 2026 expect a gain. The most bullish strategist has a target of 8,100, implying an 18.3% gain; ten expect double-digit percentage gains, just two forecast gains of less than 5%, and the average target calls for a gain of 10.7%.

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Looking at expectations for the year ahead, this year’s average S&P 500 target is modestly more bullish than the average for all years since 2000. As shown in the table below, the average year-end target historically calls for an 8.9% annual gain in the S&P 500 compared to an average gain of 7.7% for all years since 2000.  At a high level, it looks as though strategist targets aren’t that far off from where the market ends up.

Examining the results of individual years reveals a significantly different picture. In the column on the right, I show the spread between the average strategist price target and the S&P 500’s actual change for each year since 2000. Here, the differences are much wider. In the 26 years since 2000, the spread between the average strategist target and the S&P 500’s actual change exceeded 10 percentage points (ppts) 13 times, and in three years – 2001, 2002, and 2008 - the difference was more than 30 percentage points. On all three occasions, strategists proved to be overly optimistic. Conversely, there have been six years in which the S&P 500 ended the year within 5 percentage points of the average strategist's target, with the two most accurate years being 2005 and 2016.

While strategists are normally bullish, and the average year-end target has been 8.9%, this year is only the eighth time that the average strategist target has been above 10%. That level of bullishness obviously leads to the question of whether it’s a contrarian signal. In the table below, I shaded each year when the average target expected a gain of at least 10%. In each of those years, the S&P 500 had a double-digit move, but it wasn’t always higher. In 2001, 2002, and 2008, the S&P 500 finished the year down at least 13%. In the remaining four years – 2003, 2009, 2019, and 2025, the S&P 500 was up at least 16% each time. While we all like to look at the markets from a short-term perspective, remember that investing in the stock market is a long-term endeavor. Buckle up. It’s likely to be a wild ride in 2026.

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(1) Charts by Bespoke.com. 

Schorn Wealth, LLC believes all information in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This report is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, the past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Schorn Wealth's representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.