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  • Writer's pictureThomas Schorn

June Market Review

1st Half of the Year:

With the end of June, I want to also look at the 1st half of the year and the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2024. The major equity benchmarks have been widely positive since the beginning of the year. The market gains in the 1st quarter had broad participation. However, broad participation was reduced in the 2nd quarter, and mega-cap stocks outperformed considerably, as seen in the following chart.

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I included more indexes in this month's reviews since I talked with many of you about the mega-cap performance, which impacts whether we buy into weighted or equal-weighted indexes.


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As we approach how each of you is invested, we must always consider the value of diversification. This consideration produced lower results than we wanted in June. Our results were still respectable. It is very tempting to move into securities currently performing the best; that decision would provide a level of risk unacceptable to most, if not all, of you. However, we can continue moving from equal-weighted indexes to weighted ones to expose our portfolios to more mega-cap stocks while remaining diversified.


2nd Half of the Year

Let's consider whether the best or worst-performing stocks in the first half of a year do better in the second half.  As shown below, since 2003, the biggest winners of the first half have continued to be winners in the second half, while the biggest losers of the first half have lagged the market.


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While the above chart cannot guarantee what will happen until December 31, it does let us know what has happened in the last 20 years.


While few of you are 100% invested in the stock market, most are invested in a mix of stock and bonds. I have been holding short-term bonds and have stayed away from long-term bonds for more than a year. This has been the correct decision as longer-term bonds continued to lose value. However, last month, the Bloomberg Bond U.S. Aggregate Index gained more than our current bond holdings by approximately 0.19%. However, year-to-date, our short-term bond holdings are still above the index by approximately 5.5%. We are considering extending the maturities of our bond holdings, with the possibility of interest rate reductions becoming more probable as we reach the end of the year and the beginning of next year.


2024 Election:

As the election is getting close, I normally hear from clients worried that the party or candidate they do not support may win, and it will negatively impact the market and their accounts. While elections may impact our markets in the short term, they do not impact markets in the long term.


We are here to discuss this issue and share data supporting the previous paragraph.


Let's hope for a good 2nd half of 2024. We will work as hard for you in the 2nd half as in the first.


(1) Chart by bespoke.com


Schorn Wealth and Fiduciary Planning, LLC, believes all information in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This report is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, the past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Schorn Wealth's and Fiduciary Planning, LLC's representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.

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