Many clients have taken our bi-annual survey over the last fifteen months, which helps us determine where we can improve. Based on these answers, our first addition is a monthly market review. We will look at the last month historically and what we did in the preceding month. We will also look forward to the current month and discuss what we consider adding or deleting from the portfolio. This monthly discussion will evolve, and I welcome your suggestions to increase the report value.
November's Market Review
Stocks rallied big in November. Despite a modest pullback on Thursday, a late spurt into the month's end capped off one of the S&P 500's (SP500) best months of the past three decades. The SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) surged 9.1% (2) to climb ever closer to a 52-week high. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) outperformed most other areas amid the steep bid to bonds and fall in yields. This ETF was up 10.8% (2) for November, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a fresh YTD high on the month's final day.
November might very well go down as the period in which concerns about further rate hikes pivoted to optimism about imminent rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool currently priced in the potential for five quarter-point policy rate decreases in 2024, with the first possibly coming at the March meeting. This reality creates a problem for investors holding a high amount of cash - reinvestment rate risk is real, and buying in now versus 12 months from now likely prompted part of the November stock market rally.
While November was a great month, remember investing is a long-term, not a short-term event.
November Portfolio Changes
We added the following holdings to our portfolios in November: nuclear energy (NLR), uranium (URA), and home construction (ITB). See the attached report for each of these ETFs. We have no reason to consider selling these holdings soon, with our analysis still very positive.
December's Market View
Since 1928, the S&P 500 index has frequently moved higher in December than any other month, returning an average of 1.3% (1). The first half of December S&P 500 returns usually are flat, with the last five business days (and the first two of January) of the year producing the 1.3% average.
December Portfolio Possibles
We are considering adding GREK – Global X MSCI Greece ETF or EWW – iShares MISCI Mexico ETF to our portfolio. See the attached report for each of these ETFs. Both ETFs have done well through 2023, and based on the quantitative analysis, each still appears to be a buy. I plan on making this decision shortly.
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Schorn Wealth and Fiduciary Planning, LLC, believes all information in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This report is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Schorn Wealth's and Fiduciary Planning, LLC's representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
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